Here we are folks. North London Derby day. One of the worst fixtures of the year and this season, weirdly, NOT worse than playing at their gaff. Which is so weird. I’m used to waking up and just feeling like it’s going to be the worst fixture when we play at the Toilet Bowl. I think it’s because for many years we got at best a draw there. The hope just wasn’t there and as a result it was easily the worst fixture list in the calendar. I’ve also got a school mate who is the most unbearable, ‘bantery’ type of Spurs fan. He used to be nightmare back in Sixth Form when we’d play Pro Evo. He’d be all up in your face any time he beat you. It was so maddening. Then it’s carried on in our adult life. When they have beaten us it’s group voice notes, it’s videos, it’s everything. Of course when it’s our day he is silent. But when they have theirs, he is unbearable. When they won the Europa League he went to the Toilet Bowl to watch the final and when they won he did a video for me and his brother Johnny, literally naming us and staring down the phone whilst in the stadium celebrating. I messaged Johnny that night and we both agreed that we just had to suck it up. I did, to be fair, even congratulated them a day later or so. I doubt it’ll be reciprocated at any time in the other direction.

So what are we potentially in store for today then, eh?

Well, first and foremost, I think the first goal is basically everything in this game. I know I say this a lot and I know before a lot of games I talk about how Arsenal need to start early, kill the oppositions belief by getting that first goal, but based on what I see in front of me and this Scum team, if I was told I could only play the ‘first goal is important’ narrative one time in a season, it would be this one. That’s because the blueprint for this Thomas Frank side is set. It is grounded in one word: containment. Thomas Frank will want to contain this game and the way he will do this is by anchoring his side in a low block, with bodies compacting in their defensive third, two holding midfielders and a box around their own D to congest that central area. It is what he has done at Brentford that we’ve seen time and time again, it is how he has been able to deliver the success he did at Brentford and it is the narrative of the underdog. And Frank fits comfortably into that narrative a lot more than when the pressure is on to dominate a game.

That has played out for them this season; Tottenham are second from bottom for home form this season, with one win and four defeats. The Scum are a side who don’t know how to break teams down and as a result, they struggle. At home their xG is third worst, their xG against is only marginally better at fifth worst. They don’t know how to break teams down who come to their gaff and say “go on then, we’re the underdog, you impose yourself. They just can’t do it. But away from home, when they can play the ‘little team’ card, that’s where Frank thrives. They’re level on points away from home, haven’t tasted defeat, rope-a-doped Man City for their first away game of the season and have done the same against basically all of the teams they’ve played away. You can tell that in the numbers; they’ve got the best away record, but their chance creation puts them squarely mid table away from home for xG. For xG against they are only just better in ninth. They are MASSIVELY outperforming their underlying numbers (shown by the fact that on goals per shot they lead the league) and that tells me that they are a counter-attacking team who don’t create chances, but are deadly when they do.

Today they will probably only have one, two, maybe three big chances – maximum. But based on what they’ve done this season, they’ve been taking that one big chance. So if they score first, what we will get will be the ugliest, skankiest, most nauseating low block you will ever see. If they score first, then I really do fear that we might get sucked in to the horseshoe of death and us being picked off as we press high up the pitch. Think about what City did this season – yeah, that. Think about last season with West Ham, I spoke about that before that game, but in that match I think West Ham had two shots, scored two goals, won 2-0 last season but their second goal was scored on the counter. That’s what Frank wants. He wants the first goal (he even talked about set pieces too), then he wants to lock the back door. A quick check of this fixture when it is us at home tells me we have had the first goal in each of the last four, but the Scum got it in the previous four before that at The Emirates.

We. Must. Score. First.

If we do, then we have ourselves an interesting match up, because all the numbers point towards the Scum finding it hard to get back in to games. When they chase, they leave space and that could mean good things for us. If we don’t, then Van der Ven and Romero will be sitting in front of Vicario and nodding away every single ball into the box and winning a lot of tackles (they have the third most numbers of tackles won in the league).

What Arteta needs to do is to ensure that this game is controlled and that there is LITERALLY nothing that they get from our back line, which has a question mark about it with Big Gabi’s absence. I think he’ll go with Mosquera. He’s played the most football of the understudies, Hincapie has only recently started getting in to the team and I think Arteta will shift Saliba to left centre-half and play the Spaniard in a more favoured right-sided position with the protection of the excellent Jurrien Timber. I think the midfield and attack starts the same as Sunderland with Zubi, Eze and Rice and then Trossard, Merino and Saka in front and I think it will be interesting to see how Merino plays today, because his natural instincts are to drop in to midfield to receive the ball. But if Tottenham drop into a low block out of possession, the requirement might be for him to occupy those two central defenders as much as possible. Both of their defenders are good in the air, but so is Merino, so it’ll be an interesting battle.

Then, you have to look to the bench and I have everything crossed that we have at least three of those injured players back. I wrote yesterday about Gyokeres supposedly being back, btu I think I fell foul of some dickhead attention seekers posting old pictures of him, so I suspect it’ll be Martinelli, Madueke and Odegaard back. Hey, that’s a pretty good collective of players to call on and I’ll be intrigued to see if Noni plays a little more as a player who can unlock stubborn defences with his ability to beat his man.

This is a massive game. It’s going to be a really tough game. We all know what is at stake. I just pray that those Arsenal players go out there and do the business.

back tomorrow with a debrief. See you then.