Morning Gooners, hope we’re all doing well? It’s a heatwave over Europe and so all of the cooling fans in the UK have been switched on and people are complaining about how hot it is. Not me. I love it. nice warm weather is a great opportunity to get the shorts, t-shirt and shades out and given it feels like most of the time this country is covered in blankets of rain, wind, cloud or a combination of all three, I’m taking the next week or so for sure.

I do wonder what benefits or drawbacks it has on the players who are training in the heat at the moment though. Does it make them sweat more and therefore condition their bodies better? Or does the heat and need to take on more fluids, plus the general level of humidity, make it more difficult for players to reach their physical peak? Who knows. Well, the physio’s at London Colney I suppose, but I don’t really have access to them much to find out, so I’ll just wildly speculate online.

Today’s ‘ooh how exciting, we simply must sign him’ player that I saw plenty of noises about online yesterday and this morning appears to be Lucas Paqueta from Lyon, who are apparently willing to let him go for €80million, which is just shy of £70million. As usual everyone is clamouring for a different angle but the latest one I’ve seen pushed around from a few is that in the players ‘camp’ there is a belief that Arsenal want him and will bid for him. Now, I know transfers are complex and I know I know absolutely nothing about the inner workings of these deals, but I’ve never understood the ‘willing to bid’ line that often gets trotted out. It feels a bit like talking to yourself.

“Should I go and make myself a sandwich? I think I am willing to make that sandwich”

I suspect what it means is that the two ‘camps’ have had a chat about what any kind of deal could look like in terms of wages, bonuses, etc. But I suspect that has happened with dozens of players from Arsenal’s perspective right now. It’s probably why when we hear about how ‘Tielemans wants Arsenal’ it is because Arsenal already have everything agreed and lined up on the players side, they just need to put down the cash for the player. If that is true, however, I still find it odd we could potentially pay much more – almost double – for Paqueta over Tielemans, who is Premier League ready.

I even took a look at their comparison stats to see what is what, as I don’t watch a lot of French football and so it would be hard to judge – which is also probably why I favour a move for Tielemans over Paqueta as it feels less risky.

So, what did I find out? Well, we know that Tielemans has already delivered in the Premier League. That’s easy and doesn’t need any kind of detailed analysis. But he’s also much more experience in terms of the sheer volume of games he’s played. Tielemans has 306 matches played (268 starts), Paqueta is on 151 (124 starts). Tielemans has more than double the number of minutes on the pitch compared to Paqueta. As a result of that he has more goals and assists, but when you break it down over 90 minute averages then Paqueta wins on goals scored and Tielemans wins on goals assisted.

Paqueta takes more shots than Tielemans, averaging 2.82 per 90 minutes compared to Tielemans 1.38 and he also has a better overall shots on target ratio. So it looks like Paqueta is more of a guy who will have a pop as Tielemans.

On the passing stats they look pretty much even in terms of pass completion, maybe with Paqueta trying a few more longer passes than Tielemans, but Tielemans is a corner taker and a free kick taker, whereas Paqueta doesn’t look like he does as much of that. It’s also similar in terms of the way they press and also the dribbles they both attempt. So I’m starting to build a similarity that the two players have very aligned characteristics, which is pleasing because it serves to show us that after the Raphinha pursuit, it is clear we are looking back at that progressive passing midfielder profile that many of us – me too – have been talking about.

I can’t pretend to be an expert in analysing players, but looking at the stats and to my untrained eyes and mind, it feels like Tielemans will play a little deeper than Paqueta if we signed him. Paqueta will get in to the box more, he’ll try to press higher up the pitch, whereas Tielemans will look to play slightly deeper and provide those through balls to players in our forward line. And again, I can’t get away from the fact that Tielemans is a known quantity. We know what he will deliver in the Premier League and we know what we will get. Perhaps Arteta and Edu are looking for something more in that final third though? Perhaps they want a player who will spend his time in and around the opposition penalty box as we try to become a high press team? That might explain why we might have ‘cooled’ on Tielemans in the last month. But I still think that we should have him as the first choice. He’s a good age, a good price, he is ‘oven ready’ to coin a phrase, plus he’s a guy who I think would give more balance sitting deeper in our team.

But hey, I’ve clearly shown my biases here, so don’t let that make you think I wouldn’t be happy with Paqueta coming through the door. And ultimately if that’s the choice of the manager and Edu, then I’ll back it. We know it’ll be something Edu will push. After all, he’s clearly angling for another Brazilian so he can have some epic barbecues over the summers.

That’s yer lot from me for today. Catch you all in the morrow.