It;s Monday, I think, and at some stage between now and midnight we’ll get a team update from Mikel Arteta. By which time whatever I say now will probably be old news. So rather than look at what’s going on with Arsenal, why don’t we have a look at what we might face with Aston Villa tomorrow night, eh?

Firstly, a lot has been made of their overperformance of their xG. And for sure, they absolutely have when you look at games like the one this weekend that they just played against Chelsea. The Blues had 2.1xG according to Fbref, whereas Villa scored two goals from their 1.2 xG. But if you look at the actual shots on target, it points to a wasteful Chelsea who only got three of their 14 shots on target, versus Villa’s eight on target from 11 shots.

Villa are clearly a prolific team.

So I started to have a little look at how they perform, numbers-wise, and blimey they are not one for the data nerds.

In terms of xG in the league this season, they are 15th. For xG allowed, they are 14th. For goals scored, they are sixth. For goals against, they are fourth. For progressive carrying of the ball they are 14th and for progressive passing of the ball they are 10th.

They are just a weird side to try and work out.

They have the second-highest save percentage of shots they face, which points to their annoying but obviously quality keeper, they have in Martinez, and are roughly mid-table when it comes to the total number of shots they have faced.

In terms of attacking threat, they have taken the 12th most shots in the Premier League, but they’re sixth in the league for total number of shots on target. But I think herein lies the secret to their success this season: Villa have the highest shots on target percentage of any team in the league.

This is an Aston Villa side that takes quality shots. They are not a high-volume shooting machine; they simply take shots and take them from decent distances too, which explains their low xG compared to their position, I think. If you’re taking pot shots and getting them on target from 30 yards, there ain’t a lot of xG you’re hoovering up.

They also sit in the lower half of the table for total number of passes completed, which tells me they want to get the ball from back to front as quickly as is humanly possible to create chances. That’s what we’re going to have to contend with tomorrow night:

  • Quick transitional counters from back to front
  • Shots from distance
  • Probable sh*thousery and time-wasting from Martinez

Perhaps that shouldn’t really surprise us though. Last season at home we were two-up on 60 minutes having got one in the second and one on 55 minutes one what was a game we were in total control of, before Villa hit back with two relatively quick goals from a counter on 60 and 68 minutes. The season before that we lost 2-0 at home in one of the games that cost us the title; again that was with two counter-attacking goals in the last 10 minutes of the game. Villa have played rope-a-dope on us for two season’s now; it is time we learned from it and dealt with what they will be coming to us with.

A lot of that will depend on the team news too, which we’ll get from Arteta and the defensively solidity with the return of Big Gabi will be massive for us. Who plays at full back will also be important and I’ve got everything crossed that Calafiori and Timber are back. Who knows, maybe even a cheeky “Ben White is training too” wouldn’t go amiss.

Other than that there isn’t really a lot going on at the moment. I was toying with the idea on what some of the Villa forums might be saying, but I suspect it will be full of some of their fans doing a fair bit of crowing and expectation of victory after their really good run they’re on at the moment, so I’m not sure I can be arsed with looking at a few pages of comments.

Instead, I’ll simply take my leave for today and be back to you tomorrow when we’re got a bit more team news and an idea of how we might line up.

See you then.