As the old cliche goes: football is a game of opinions. And this blog is my opinion. Often misinformed, regularly incorrect, sometimes just plain wrong. But it is opinions nonetheless and that’s what it’ll always be.

That caveat out the way, let’s get in to the big breaking news yesterday, delivered to us in the afternoon by the ever-reliable David Ornstein:

https://twitter.com/David_Ornstein/status/1669000734904401923?s=20

So it appears we’ve got the slight hots for Kai Havertz and, apparently, the feeling is pretty mutual. So cue the Arsenal social media online fanbase dividing in to their respective halves to debate and dissect whether he is a good move for us or not. And here is the bit to which my caveat right at the top becomes clear:

I am not.

I have seen him in a German shirt do quite well. I remember the hype around him at Leverkusen when he signed for Chelsea and I remember thinking he may we just go on to do great things at that horrible football club. But here we are three years later and I think it is fair to say that he’s hardly set the world alight.

  • 19 goals in 91 appearances for Chelsea – many as their central striker
  • seven assists in that time
  • He ranks second lowest in the league last season for his xG differentials, which is another way of saying he doesn’t put away his chances, when given them
  • 46th percentile (according to FBREF) in his successful take ons – so he doesn’t take on players
  • 70th percentile for aerial duals won – so although he’s a tall lad, he doesn’t win many balls in the air.

That last one might seem a little random, but let me show my workings here, because most of the managers he has had in England have played him as one of the forward players. We – as Arsenal fans – have talked about how we might need something different from Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah next season. A big, physical, presence is something that many people have said is a different option. In fact we talked about needing to do something different on last night’s Same Old Arsenal podcast. If that is the case and we are looking at Havertz as a central striking option, then we are supposedly interested in a guy not great in the air, not the best finisher, but apparently is a good presser off the ball, which is what I heard on a podcast featuring a Chelsea fan this morning.

Isn’t that what Gabriel Jesus offers us? Only he is a better finisher, more tenacious in the press and has managed to bag a few decent goals from his head last season. So why the interest in Havertz?

Now, what I can get behind in this deal, is the fact that we are seizing a potential opportunity. Chelsea have two weeks to make some sales to count for this seasons numbers, of which they spent £600million on players and then finished 12th, meaning massive revenue drop offs and FFP challenges for them. That is why United bid £40million for Mason Mount last night and upon hearing that Chelsea wanted £70million, but that Arsenal would not be prepared to go that far and ‘all in’ wanted a package of £60million, maybe I can get behind this as a rotation option. But to spend £60million on a rotation option still feels too steep. We paid Porto £35million for Fabio Vieira and if you’re talking about Havertz for that price then I’m probably thinking we are making a shrewd move; German international, been in the chaos of Chelsea and coming to a more stable environment might be good for him. We have also seen how some players are flourishing under Arteta and the fact that you have players lice Rice actively pursuing a move because they want to work with our San Sebastian Spaniard, means that we are clearly doing something right.

So overall whilst I’m not really down for this transfer, if certain conditions work, I can at least begin to understand it. However, the question remains as to how he would fit in to our system. Are we looking to play him as one of our two eights? Where does Rice sit then? As a six? Then what happens with Partey because you don’t pay £100million for a guy who is a rotation option but, at the same time, I would be surprised if we offloaded BOTH Partey and Xhaka and destabilised our midfield that much after a season in which we delivered so many good performances thanks to that midfield.

I am also worried about the responses from Chelsea fans. As I said I listened to a pod this morning and the guy on was hardly apoplectic with rage about his football team. He simply admitted that it hadn’t worked and then when I looked at the discord online I saw a split amongst Chelsea fans, because many were happy to see him go so they could strengthen. And Chelsea are a mess.

Then I start to think about other players currently in the positions he occupies. ESR anyone? I’d much rather we have a go at giving him a shot at left eight than spending £60million all in on Havertz. I get he has versatility, but why are we bringing in somebody like that to play across the front three, for example, when we have just signed up Reiss Nelson on a long term deal? What was the point in doing that if Havertz is coming in to be a multi-positional player that can play wide left or right and act as cover for Saka or Martinelli? Nelson would end up further down the pecking list.

Then, finally on this for today, what does that do to other positions that we need to address? If we’re dropping £100million on Rice, then £60million on Havertz, there’s no way we’re spending another £75-£80million on Caicedo, who I think would be a much better addition than Havertz. There will be people saying “it’s not your money” and “we can spend much more now with the Champions League, extra prize money for finishing second, etc” and I get it, we can. But we’ve also handed bumper contracts to Saliba, Gabriel, Martinelli, Saka and we’re supposedly looking at bumping the likes of Odegaard and Ben White. You can’t just chuck a pile more cash on your wage bill and not expect that it impacts our ability to sign players. We are not a financially doped nation state-backed football club.

Look, all I’m saying is that I’m not particularly hot on this deal and there are other players in the world who might get me a little more excited. If he joins he would of course get my support and I’d hope that he’d do amazing things in an Arsenal shirt. But right now I’m just not seeing the sense in this move.

Be interested to read what you guys think.