I have mixed feelings about tonight’s game away at Everton, you know.

One the one hand, we have had a full week of training for the players, there are plenty of training pics that show key players are back in the squad and fit for tonight, plus we got an update from Mikel that Big Gabby is ‘pushing hard’ to be fit soon in his pre match press conference. We also have the fact that Everton will be without key players Ndiaye, Gana Gueye missing due to AFCON, as well as injuries to Branthwaite, Dewsbury-Hall, Coleman and Rohl are all out for them too. So there are a few signs there of positivity we could take into this game.

But…man…it’s Everton, you know? It’s the North West. It’s a team who we’ve only won once in seven up there. It’s a side with Jack Grealish fit and I feel like he’s always had good games against us. Plus, there seems to be so much that is pointing towards an Arsenal win, that it feels like the Football Gods will invariably look to scupper our plans somewhat. It just ‘feels’ like that, you know?

That’s the glass-half-empty part of me kicking in. Because the reality should be that this is a rejuvenated Arsenal side, an Arsenal side who have been able to work out some of those bad habits Arteta mentioned in his post-Wolves conference, a side who are top of the league until at least 5pm when West Ham inevitably get beat up by City at the soulless CityBowl for this afternoon’s 3pm kick off.

Arteta did get asked about the ‘habits’ in his press conference and he said that’s what they have been working on this week and that he hopes we’ll see an improvement. I think it simply has to be and the players know that too, so I think they’ll have some extra motivation tonight, which is what we need given the context of what is 100% going to happen in Manchester earlier in the day. We have options too; from what it sounded like in the press conference we are missing Big Gabby, Christian Mosquera, Ben White and Kai Havertz from the team, which feels like the bench should certainly be stocked with options if he needs it and that is a positive. And with that in mind, what sort of starting XI will we see today?

I have a feeling it’ll look like this:

Raya

Timber   –   Saliba   –   Hincapie   –   Calafiori

Zubimendi

Odegaard   –   Rice

Saka   –   Gyokeres   –   Trossard

I think the back four picks itself at this stage and given Hincapie has impressed, I don’t expect there will be too much shuffling going on by moving Calafiroi (back from suspension) into the middle and playing MLS. Despite having his workload managed in training this week, I think Zubi starts and when asked about it Arteta didn’t seem too fussed. Then, either side of him and just in front I think Arteta reverts back to what is his first choice midfield in Odegaard and Rice. Out of possession Rice slots in to a double pivot with Zubi, whereas in possession he is more furthr advanced occupying that space nearish to Trossard and trying to win the ball back higher up the pitch in that space just in front of the opposition D. Saka and Odegaard resume their normal partnership and I think Gyokeres and Trossard will be detailed to forge one. A few Arsenal fans have already noted that Gyokeres looked marginally better with Gyokeres on the pitch than Martinelli, but Trossard’s form is such that I don’t think you can keep him out and given that he’s had a week in training now, I don’t see how you can start anyone else. There was a question over whether Merino could be used in attack but I think Arteta will look at this game, look at the fact we’re away and there might be a bit more space than there was last weekend, then opt for the Swede over the Spaniard up top.

If he does go with that XI, the good news is that we have loads of options on the bench. We can name nine subs on the bench in the Premier League and if I roll off the names who are now fit, it looks like a strong bench to choose from if we need it:

  1. Kepa
  2. Lewis-Skelly
  3. Norgaard
  4. Nwaneri
  5. Merino
  6. Eze
  7. Jesus
  8. Martinelli
  9. Madueke

You give me that bench and I’m saying “yep, there are definite options there to freshen up in the second half” and if it isn’t working, that’s what I want to see sooner rather than later today.

Hopefully it is working though. And hopefully we can get the first goal. It feels like that might be a telling sign between these two teams. We’ve conceded first in each of our last three away games and are yet to muster a win, whereas Everton have apparently lost eight of their last ten Premier League games in which they’ve been the first to concede, so it feels like that first goal might be telling in this encounter. The ending of the game needs to also not be as scary and frustrating as t’s been in our last three matches. Sunderland scored late, Villa scored late, Wolves scored late – albeit with us making an almost instant response. But those late goals are not great and if you’re doing that on a consistent basis, then there might be fair calls for some mentality questioning going on. My hope is that bad luck comes in threes and we’ve just had three of our last four in which we’ve had those 90-minute+ goals against us scored. So no more of that, please, Arsenal.

What I think we also need to see is more end product from our attacking line. The fact we are coming up to the halfway point in the season and we have our top scorers on just four goals isn’t really good enough. Yes, we have four of them – Saka, Gyokeres, Eze and Leo – but really we need to be bagging more in games and the fact that so many are predicting we win this as a one-nil or two-one tells you all you need to know about our challenges that remain in front of goal this season.

In Everton we come up against a side on 18 goals scored, which is joint fourth worst in the league, with 19 goals conceded – sitting them in a decent position in seventh, so you know that they will be difficult to breakdown, will remain resolute and I suspect given their injuries, Moyes might go for a a compact game in which a draw is a fine result. Yes they’re at home and yes, the crowd will be gee’d up given it’s the last game before Christmas and an evening kick off, but I don’t see Everton being expansive and having a go with a high press. They are a side that has six clean sheets all season and so they are well-versed in shutouts and when they have the ball in Pickford’s hands or feet, they’re going long (he launches the third most of any ‘keeper and his in-play passes have the second-highest average distance of any team in the league.

I think, having looked at some numbers on their defensive actions and seen they have the most number of blocks in the league this season so far, we’re going to get quite a difficult game to watch, if I’m honest. That’s why Leo and Saka and their tricky feet might be important today. And please, Martin Odegaard, none of those silly sand wedged lobbed passes; you seem to try them every game and they never come off.

It’s going to be tough, it’s going to probably be stodgy, but Arsenal need to find a way to get the first goal and I really hope that doesn’t mean we have another game where we essentially give up the first half to walking pace football. Given the week off for the players, there can be little excuse for ‘rest defence’ and so I want to see us moving the ball a lot quicker than we have all season.

Fingers crossed boys and girls. Because it really feels like we need this win to kick-start the Christmas period.

Catch you all tomorrow for a debrief.