It’s Brighton at home today in what is sure to be a really tricky encounter for Mikel Arteta’s men.

For a number of years now, Brighton have been one of those clubs that you say things like “they play decent football” or “they’re a well-run club,” and over the years at The Emirates, they’ve given us a good run for our money, for sure. Last season, it was a goal from Joao Pedro to level things up after we’d gone ahead and then seen a ludicrous red card that we’ve never seen since for Declan Rice. That was right at the beginning of the season, I was in Portugal watching the game, and boy was I spitting feathers.

So to wash that memory clean, I’d like to see a really good display of dominance and three points for The Arsenal. We have of course, already played Brighton once in the League Cup this season, but it was a heavily rotated Arsenal side, and Fabian Hurzler also rotated his Brighton team, so it didn’t really feel like it counts.

Today it does count, though and Brighton will be at as full strength as they can, with a number of players returning from injury and suspension like Danny Welbeck, Lewis Dunk, Diego Gomez, and Jan Paul Van Hecke also returning. So despite having a bit of a stalemate against Sunderland in their last game, they’ll have a number of key cogs in the machine back today, so I’m expecting them to be difficult.

What Arteta needs to decide is how we’re going to break down an organised Brighton outfit who will look to hit us on transition. I suspect the team news will see some returning players from the bench against Palace, and so my gut feel on who Arteta puts out today includes:

Raya

Timber – Saliba – Hincapie – Calafiori

Zubimendi

Ødegaard – Rice

Saka – Gyokeres – Trossard

There’s obviously a question about Hincapie, but when I read the transcript of Arteta’s pre-match press conference a couple of days ago, it sounded to me like it was a little knock, and I think he’ll come in today. It would be nice to get the news that Big Gabi is back for today, but I suspect they are saving him for Villa at home; there’s no inside track on that, just a gut feel.

The midfield reverts to the first choice XI I think, whilst in attack, I just feel like Arteta will think that with Gyokeres scoring in his last game, he might have restored a little bit of confidence. I suspect two games in four days for Gabriel Jesus is a little too much for him right now, too. He did well against Palace, but I think his minutes will continue to be managed for the foreseeable future. Then, to complete the starting lineup, I think the form of Leo Trossard is such that you simply can’t keep him out. And against his former club, with a smattering of boos from the away corner of the ground, I think it might be the sort of thing that will spur him on to have a good game today.

Speaking of returning players, we’ll also no doubt see Danny Welbeck lead the line today, which will be a challenge because he’s liked a goal or two against old teams in the past and has done it against us whilst playing for Watford a few seasons back. He’s also in form this season, and before he picked up his recent knock, had himself seven goals in 16 games this season. To put that form into context, he mustered just 10 goals in 30 games last season, and the season before last it was five in 29 matches. So he’s picked up a bit of form this season, and as I think we’ve seen with our own new summer signing up top, when strikers have confidence, they take those chances that perhaps otherwise they might not have done.

In the League Cup, Brighton created chances, and I think they will do so today as well. In fact, I seem to recall we were slightly fortunate to go ahead in that match, as Brighton had a few very presentable opportunities that they probably should have buried. As an Arsenal fan who mainly only concerns himself with his own team and doesn’t religiously watch all kinds of football, I couldn’t tell whether or not that was the story of that particular game. Still, apparently, it has been a feature of their season. So much so, that Huzeler was asked about their number of shots versus actual goal conversions, so clearly they will get chances today. The numbers sort of bear that out; Brighton sit sixth in the table on total number of shots, seventh on shots on target with a shots on target percentage of 31.4%, which drops them down to 13th. 

So whilst I don’t think this will be a low-block game, I do think Brighton will come to sit a wee bit deeper and spring traps. We won’t see zero invention from them and they will get possession of the football at times, so it is on us to make sure that when we have it, we make it count.

I’ll be in a slightly different seat and going with the old man today, which is nice, so hoping that we get a festive win to keep us top, because there is absolutely ZERO chance of Forest pulling off an upset in the early game against City today.

Then tomorrow we’ll be back with a podcast doing a bit of a digest of what unfolds. Let’s hope it is a happy one. 

Catch you all then.