Happy match day all – hope we’re all feeling positive ahead of a trip to the City Ground today?

This is a Forest side who currently sit 17th in the table, who have lost 12 of their 21 games this season (one being a 3-0 to us at the Emirates during the disastrous Postecoglou reign), who – as I pointed out yesterday – are in patchy form overall of late, and given our current form (Liverpool draw aside), you’d hope this is one in which Arsenal could win and win comfortably.

But you and I both know that is not how we roll. I am absolutely convinced that this will not be comfortable today – Sean Dyche wouldn’t allow it – and so Arsenal are really going to work hard if they want those three points this evening.

By a weird quirk of fate, we also have a pretty poor recent head-to-head versus Forest at the City ground, too. Last season was a draw 0-0, lumped in with about a billion other draws we picked up. The season before that we did win 2-1 around the same time as now, with goals from Gabby Jesus and Bukayo Saka in the last 20 minutes. But before that we played them in May as our title run essentially came to an end with a 1-0 defeat there, then the year before that I was up at the game as we lost 1-0 in the FA Cup, with the time before that being in 2018 in which we lost 4-2 with a rotated Arsenal side that was pretty terrible defensively on the day I seem to recall. So that’s one win in five, which means there might be some Forest fans on their way to the game tonight thinking that maybe they could give us a bit of a chinning this evening.

Hey, it’s the Premier League, so it’s not outside the realms of reality that it could happen. City went there, relied on a late goal, should have had a man sent off and really, were a little fortunate to get the win overall. So we can’t be too arrogant to think that form and the league table set us up for a nice evening. As I mentioned yesterday, Forest will go direct, they will attack our defensive final third, they will be aggressive, and we need to be ready for it.

That’s why I think Arteta will keep the same side as he did for Chelsea. He would have expected the aggression from Chelsea in the same way he will be expecting it from Forest, so for me that means you have to go with Timber left back, White right back. Arteta hinted at a return for one of Dowman, Mosquera or Calafiori, for which I think it might be Mosquera today. I don’t know why, but I just get that feeling that perhaps he’s back. If that happens, it is good news indeed; we’re playing both of our right backs if we go with what I have suggested, and Mosquera can fill in there, so if it means we can get one of them off – or maybe even both if the scoreline is favourable for us with 20 minutes to go – then that’s what we have to do. We have INter in midweek and I think Arteta simply has to rotate one or both of White/Timber for that one, because we don’t want to risk both of them, which means a return of Mosquera could result in him able to fill in there for INter, as well as MLS on the left, which allows for that rotation and rest we would need ahead of a big game at home to United.

Which is why I think he’ll go strong in the back four today.

I don’t think he changes midfield either for this one. Zubi-Rice-Odegaard feels like it’s a must for a midfield battle that I think will include Andersen and Sangaré, fresh from AFCON, so we need those first-choice players to be ready and willing to go for this one. I hope that Yates doesn’t get on, because every time I’ve seen him, he’s a clobbermeister who would happily leave one in on a player to pick up a yellow, so hopefully, if he plays, it is for the dying embers of this one.

Up top, again, I think the only question mark might be left wing, because I believe Saka is obviously locked in for this, with Gyokeres up top, having scored in midweek. Hopefully, Big Vik is given a little more space, too. He’s up against some burly defenders in Murrilo and six-foot-five Milenkovic. He’s not the quickest in the world, whilst Murillo is a little bit more of the muscle and apparently does have occasional lapses in concentration, so if Viktor can find a way to get some space against those two, who knows, maybe he can drop back-to-back goals?

So, who plays in that left-wing spot? You could argue the toss over some players, I think, so it’s tough to call. Do you go with the trickery and form this season of Trossard? Maybe. But he hasn’t been sparkling in the last couple of matches. He hasn’t been poor by any stretch of the imagination, but I just haven’t seen him in the same scintillating form he showed a couple of weeks back during the Christmas period. Martinelli is fresh off a hat-trick last weekend, so he might be a good option, but if Forest sit in a compact shape when we have the ball, Martinelli might be reduced to that kind of game we all dread for him: hugging the touchline, no space to run in behind, touch-touch-touch-byline-cross to nowhere. I think that space on the pitch will be taken up by Ola Aina, who is quick and good at ball recoveries, so it feels like you might need somebody good at beating the man today. I wouldn’t mind seeing Madueke in that regard, because he’s probably the best at beating a man in the whole club. Trossard, too, has the trickery more than Martinelli, so that’s another option. An outside bet might be Eze, but I just think Arteta is going off the idea of using him there, with the last time we saw that for any length of time being in the Villa loss at the beginning of December. So there are at least two options for Arteta, depending on how he thinks Forest will line up, which is a real positive in an attacking sense.

I do think this one is going to be a bit of a slog, though. The Forest fans will be raucous; they’ll have had a few beers, so it’ll be a lively atmosphere, which means we need to get on the ball and impose ourselves early. WE tend to start games slowly and control the ball, and given we played in midweek, I bet we try to slow this first half down with possession, whilst Forest might be more of aggressive at the start to try and get ahead and get the crowd on side. If that happens, we have to find solutions to just keep control of those first 30 minutes. Do that, then build on our game, and hopefully we can get the win.

We’ll need to, because City will have beaten a ragged United side who have only had a few days with Carrick in charge. I might watch the start of that one, until City score at least, but I’m not holding out much hope. So we need to do our job a few hours after that has finished.

Back tomorrow for a pod with James and Amanda, as well as the usual blog on here. Catch you then.