Feeling a bit, well, weirdly nervous about this one today.

Yesterday I touched on it, but it’s one of those games in which everything – and everyone – is calling this a routine home win. The stats back it up, again, as I mentioned yesterday. Sundewrland aren’t amazing away from home. And yet….AND YET…there’s that nagging feeling that when we’ve really had the opportunity to start really – and I mean REALLY – pull away from the chasing pack, it’s felt like we haven’t quite been able to do it.

Remember the Declan Rice “every F*cking time” comment captured after Forest? Or the feeling post-United? I remember seeing a stat from Sky during the United game, which was that in 24 of our previous 24 that we’d gone ahead, we’d won – I think it was at home. And what happened? The odds went against us on that occasion. So I just worry that the data seems to be pointing in such a way that we might end up getting ‘against-the-run-of-pplay’ chinned today.

It just feels like there’s jeopardy lurking around every corner.

But I guess that’s just the nature of a title run-in. We’ve sort of been doing this for a few years now, so you’d think we’d be attuned to it by now, but it feels somehow different this season. We’ve been leading for so long. We’ve been the best team for so long. We’ve been waiting for a title as fams for so long, that we’re extra stressed about this, I feel like more than ever. In 2022/23 it was the ‘surprise package’ gig. In 2023/24, it was ‘blown it at Christmas,’ but then we went on a mega-surge at the end, so we were still underdogs and chasing. Last season was the season of injury hell and a squad not big enough to respond. This season it has – up until this point – been all there for us. And so far we’ve taken our chances. Heck, we’re six points clear as it stands. And yet…AND YET…it does feel like we’re on a knife-edge between being reeled back in.

So today’s home game against Sunderland represents an opportunity to keep on keeping on. To keep up the efforts, intensity, and relentlessness of the Premier League.

Sunderland’s game plan today will be clear: Keep it tight, congest the central spaces, look for free kicks, corners, etc, then see if you cvan ‘nick’ a goal. Arsenal – having played in midweek – may well start off with that controlled possession that so many of us worry about. you know, the stuff where Gabriel and Saliba are exchanging passes at walking pace? That may well be the first half we watch today. So as fans in the stadium, or those like me watching from afar whilst on my final day of holiday today, we probably need to, in the words of George Clooney in From Dusk til Dawn, ‘be cool’.

We don’t have to worry about Granit Xhaka, so that’s one thing we don’t need to worry about. Then there are players like Masuaku, but Xhaka being out is the main one for them. They still have Le Fee, Brobbey, Diarra, who can all cause us issues. We’ll dominate the ball, but we need to dominate more than just ball and territory, which is where picking players with incision is key.

For me, that means I think we should line up today with this team:

Raya

Timber   –   Saliba  –   Gabriel   –   Calafiori

Zubimendi

Eze   –   Rice

Madueke  –   Gyokeres   –   Trossard

I tinkered with the preference being Havertz up top, given that he only had a cameo against Chelsea, but he’s played a lot recently, and given the goalscoring exploits last weekend of Big Vik, I just wonder if Arteta might go for him. I personally think we might need a bit more guile, but when you have a striker who is bagging, you probably need to lean in to that a little more. Madueke for Saka is the natural replacement, whilst Leo for his close ball control feels obvious. But if Odegaard is, as we expect, still out, then you also need to lean into the ‘X-Factor’ of somebody like Eze. This game – for me – feels really similar to the one against Palace earlier in the season in the league. A good team, a solid unit, a side that will be tough to break down, in which you need a ‘difference maker’. That boy Ebs is one of those, so let’s lean in to it.

I will be watching at 9 pm local time, hoping that I have a flight home tomorrow, which is nice and not grumpy, which will depend entirely on whether Arsenal can do the business today. Let’s hope they can.

Catch you all tomorrow.