Morning folks – happy match day. Let’s hope it is one in which The Arsenal are blessed with three points.

We were all certainly blessed with mostly good news yesterday, as it was all but confirmed that Bukayo Saka has signed his new bumper contract. I was asked to give some comments on that for the BBC so rather than repeat what I said there, here is a link if you want to see a few words from me on that deal.

There was also good news on the injury front, as Riccardo Calafiori has been confirmed as fit following his withdrawal from the squad at the weekend against Wigan. When you hear that kind of news, there is often a worry that it’ll end up being a prolonged absence, as was the case over Christmas when he pulled up in a warm-up game, but this time it appears the club is focused on making sure they don’t take any precautions with players like Riccy. That’s EXACTLY what we all want to hear; he’s a very talented player, and we need him available, not out for weeks and weeks at a time. Whether he starts tonight will be interesting. Personally, I’d be tempted not to risk it, to give Hincapie the starting jersey, then see if Calafiori comes through the last 30 minutes unscathed. If he does, you’ve got him as a viable option for the game against The Scum at the weekend.

Ben White is also fine, having limped off, but it appears that was just a bit of fatigue, so having him available is good. Jurrien Timber probably needs to do a little more job sharing in my opinion, because he’s looked leggy in the latter stages of games recently, so having White available to come on is important for us and keeping it tight at the back, I believe.

The other good news on the injury front was that Kai Havertz has an outside chance of being fit for this evening, according to Mikel Arteta, but he has also said he is a possibility for the weekend. I think the club won’t risk Kai tonight, but I think they’ll have him training this week and maybe he can be a bench option on Sunday, which is fantastic news.

Odegaard, however, won’t make it this evening, which I think means Arteta has two options for a replacement, and I’ll be interested to see what he goes for. He either puts Eze in there in the hope that the Wigan game has been the spark that the Englishman needs, or he can continue with the Saka-central experiment, in the hope that this could be something that unlocks our scoring firepower for the remainder of the season, where we will continue to come up against low blocks.

I really don’t know which option he’ll go for. Of course, what he could do is play Eze in the left eight, then tell Rice to switch to right eight and do the same role, but on a slightly different pivot to normal. We’re going to have more of the ball, we’re going to do most of the attacking tonight, you’d expect, so giving those progressive passes and attacking players like Eze the natural zones and spaces they like to operate in makes sense to me. Rice is also quality enough that he could do just as good a job at right eight as he does on the left, so that’s what I’d be leaning towards if I were Arteta.

I also think that Wolves are going to sit into a low block and congest the defensive third; they have the lowest field tilt of any team in the Premier League (meaning most of the ball is played in their half), they have made the second most tackles of any team (suggesting they are often on the back foot trying to wrestle back control), although interestingly they are not the worst when it comes to things like xG – Burnley, West Ham, Leeds and Forest are all worse for xG allowed, which says to me that whilst Wolves have trouble up the attacking end and sit deep, they don’t give up as many chances as those sides.

With some of that data in mind, it does feel like somebody like Eze would be useful in this match. If Wolves are sitting deep in their own box, maybe we do need to unsettle them by peppering a few shots from distance? I think we also need those trickery players, so Trossard on the left feels natural, but should we be looking at Madueke on the right? Probably not. You can’t not have Saka in this Arsenal team. He’s the main man, and whilst his form hasn’t been amazing, this is the sort of day and game that he could well come alive in on that right-hand side. So, for me, I’d go with this as a starting XI:

Raya

Timber   –   Saliba   –   Gabriel   –   Hincapie

Zubimendi

Rice   –   Eze

Saka   –   Gyokeres   –   Trossard

If that’s the side, then you still have Martinelli and Madueke to be impact players in the second half. If the game feels like one in which Big Vik isn’t getting a sniff because of a low-block back line, then Gabby J is also there as somebody who can come o,n too. If the game is (hopefully) sewn up, maybe you can also think about Norgaard for the closing stages, as he impressed against Wigan, and I think he is deserving of more Premier League minutes than he’s had so far.

Wolves are expected to line up with a back three, which will move to a back five when out of possession and dropping deep, which might mean that they look to double up on our wide men. They are missing Hwang, but they have that tricky kid, Mane, who has impressed me on the few times I’ve seen him. If he plays, he’s one to keep an eye on. Like us, they rotated practically all of their team, although their back line remained the same, so maybe/hopefully there’s some fatigue that creeps in there for us to take advantage of. But this should be a game that we are doing anyway. There is a reason Wolves have eight points all season. There is a reason they have just one win against West Ham all season. There is a reason they are at the bottom of the league, and if we want to win this thing, this is the sort of game that you need to do the business in. Wolves proved in the game at The Emirates that they are not as terrible as their results suggest, and I think Mikel will be acutely aware of the need for his team to be on it tonight.

That’s it from me. I’ll be back tomorrow for a review, in which hopefully we’re talking about three points for The Arsenal.

Catch you then.