Football karma man, it sucks. The footballing gods in particular, man, they hate me.

So I want to take this moment to offer a public apology to all of you guys who read my ramblings regularly: I have let you all down.

I went Uber-positive on Sunday’s blog. It was a break from the norm. I am an apprehensive Arsenal fan. I always have been since the 2006 Champions League final. I went into that so convinced we would win it. Then it broke me when we didn’t. So I turned to pessimism to protect myself and my emotions from that level of heartbreak. I figured if I think about the worst-case scenario in my head, then if/when it happens, I will be prepared for it anyway. If the best thing happens and Arsenal win, I am doubly happy about it because I didn’t expect it.

For the second time that happened to me, which is in my head, you have to fast-forward 13 years to the 2019 Europa League final. I was convinced that we were beating Chelsea. They had already qualified for the Champions League, they had that ridiculous EFL Cup final in which Kepa (I know, I know) had refused to come off, and then they lost on penalties. They, of course, wanted to win something, but our need was greater, so I was convinced our design would get us over the line. Oh, and we had MR Europa League in Unai Emery too.

We all know how that went.

On Sunday, I had that same conviction, but we all know how that went. And I don’t want to labour the point here too much, but as the dust was settling and we were starting to all think yesterday “it’s fine, we have three more competitions to go for”, the Football Gods decided to clearly read my blog and go “ooh man, we’re are screwing you royally for this”. By ‘the’, I of course mean my proclamation on yesterday’s blog:

My hope is that we don’t get any wind of news that any of the injuries that are sustained are long-term. If we’re talking players needing a solid 10 – 14 days rest to recover, then happy days – for once, an international break has come at the right time.

Famous last words, eh? Because yesterday Sami Mokbel dropped on us this afternoon, and I found myself thinking “for f*cks sake, why does this sort of sh*t always happen to us?”

I do feel like ever since we had the 2023/24 season of various media pundits saying things like “yeah, well, they haven’t had any injuries” in reference to our good form that season, we’ve had one after the other. It’s certainly coming on 18 months of injury after injury. And this one is a particularly bitter pill to swallow because:

  1. Eze was starting to find some form
  2. Odegaard was able to recover from injury without being rushed back
  3. We have been told – and are seeing that with our own eyes – that Spring is when he comes alive.

If the timeframes are right, then we are looking at him being out until probably the Newcastle game at the earliest, and with two months of the season left, he’s missing half of it. It’s a massive blow for a player who has been so clutch for us in recent weeks and I feel has started to see his place in the team, delivering end-product with it as well.

The positive, as Sami says in the article, is that Odegaard appears to be back in training, and the club now has at least another 10 days with which to get minutes in his legs at London Colney. Whether or not he goes straight into the team for Southampton needs to be carefully looked at, though, because he’s hardly built up a cadence of games to suggest he’ll be fine to play on Saturday night and then Tuesday night against Sporting Lisbon. This season alone, according to TransferMarkt, he has missed:

  • 37 days and seven matches due to a knee problem
  • Eight days and two matches due to a knee problem
  • 10 days and two matches due to a muscle injury
  • 53 days and eight games due to a knee injury
  • 13 days and six games due to a shoulder injury

Our captain has missed a total of 121 days, with five injuries and 22 games this season. Arsenal have played 50 matches so far. So Odegaard has missed 44% of ALL matches we’ve played this season. The worry now, with Eze’s injury, is that we are going to be reliant on a guy who has shown that he’s susceptible to injury all season for basically two seasons now. Last season, he missed 15 games in total. So whilst I love him, I think an Odegaard in top form is integral to the way we play, it does feel like we haven’t seen that very much at all this season and I also think it is going to take him time to get back any kind of form and rhythm.

If I’m trying to look at the positives here, I could say that we have other options. But they aren’t fully tested and, frankly, they haven’t exactly delivered amazing results. At the weekend, we had Kai in that midfield role, but after he signed and then switched to playing up front, we all spent the time saying that he wasn’t a midfielder and didn’t do that job as well. He wasn’t great on Sunday, although he’s still coming back from injury, so he’s building his fitness up after a year out. Saka centrally has the possibility of being exciting on paper, but his form is such that we haven’t seen too much of what his potential is for that role and on the weekend, he wasn’t great in it before Noni came on either. That could be the circumstance of that situation; we were just abject on Sunday in that second half anyway, so perhaps we just have to accept that and move on. Perhaps Saka could be something that works there, but with the season reaching a crescendo, it’s hardly optimal that we’re discussing untested options at such a crucial time.

As I said yesterday, and I’ve quoted above, perhaps the other good news is that Arteta and his coaching staff have the next 10 days to think of how they react to this Eze injury, and how they plan an approach that will get Martin Odegaard’s engine up and running again. We are going to need him, plus some of the other options I’ve mentioned, between now and the end of the season for sure.

Catch you all tomorrow.