It’s match day two of the Champions League tonight and after Liverpool dropped points to Galatasaray and the Scum also dropped points to The WIFI password, it should serve as a telling reminder that just because we are in the Best League in the World (refereeing body aside), doesn’t mean we have any God-given right to victory. Indeed, Olympiacos represents a nut we have had to crack on a number of occasions in the Champions League, with the last time being when we lost in March 2021 at home 1-0 in the Europa League. Of course that was, thankfully, the second leg of which we’d already won the first leg at their gaff 3-1, but it represents an intriguing stat I saw last night from Orbinho that the home side has lost on each of the last six occasions of this match being played between the two teams. We’ve gone there and won threee times, they’ve come to us and beaten us three times, so Mikel Arteta will be very conscious of a smash-and-grab this evening I suspect.
Olympiacos are the big fish in their Greek pond; they currently sit top of the Greek Super League but only on goal difference after five games. They’ve bagged 13 goals in that time and only conceded three, but I suspect they will be well aware that Arsenal away represent a stiffer task than ten-man Panserraikos at home. This game represents an opportunity to bag a 100% record in this competition and Arteta will be very mindful of the fact that we should be aiming to get to 15/16 points as quickly as possible to try to secure us a top eight spot. My gut feel is that this season it will be 16 points to get you there, which is five wins and a draw and with four home games still to play including tonight, as well as one already banked in Bilbao, we are on track. But we need to take this Greek team seriously.
It’s an experienced Greek outfit and I’ve just read from the official site (more here if you fancy it) that this is one of the oldest squads in the Champions League, which immediately makes me think that we can get at them if we are more purposeful and pacey in our movement of the ball. But that could also make them a wiley ol’ operator, so perhaps putting stock in age when you don’t really know what the team is actually like is a little bit of a fools errand on my part. A quick check on TransferMarkt for names I’m familiar with gives me little knowledge, with only Gelson Martins (that guy of Sporting fame who was linked with a host of clubs a few seasons back) and Daniel Podence – formerly of Wolves, currently on loan from Al-Shabab – being the two players that I recognise from their current squad. That doesn’t mean they can’t surprise us, but I always find matches like this difficult to assess the opponent, because the way Olympiacos are used to playing probably won’t be what we see this evening. For example in their last Champions League outing they played Cypriot minnows Pafos and got a 0-0. Pafos went down to 10-men on 25 minutes and the two teams played out a 0-0 draw with Olympiacos having 70% possession of the ball, 533 passes, 18 shots and three on target. That game state isn’t going to play out tonight.
So what should we expect?
This is where I have to look at The Arsenal and what we do, as well as how Arteta sets up his team and what rotation he should be engaging with, because I do think he’s shown a willingness to do that and I do think there is enough quality in our team to rotate. He could, for example, easily change our fullbacks and we see that the drop in quality is non-existent, with White and MLS coming in. I don’t think there would be many Arsenal fans who would have a problem with that. He could also give Martinelli a run out instead of Trossard, or decide that he wants to do a job-share between Odegaard and Eze. I suspect he’ll play Big Vik, but given how Arteta was asked about him in his press conference yesterday and talked so glowingly about the effort he puts in across both training and in matches, I suspect the ideal for the manager would be to play him for 60 minutes, have us a couple of goals up, then bring him off for a Merino so that he’s fresh for West Ham on Saturday.
The important thing is that we get the balance right. This may not be one of the giants of the Champions League, but they can still bloody a nose, so whilst I do think he’ll shuffle his pack a little, I don’t think we’ll see wholesale changes like Port Vale. So, if I’m going to stab a guess at a starting line up, I’m thinking:
- Raya
- White
- Saliba
- Gabriel
- Lewis-Skelly
- Zubimendi
- Rice
- Odegaard
- Gyokeres
- Saka
- Martinelli
I think Saka has been carefully built up for minutes and I think he – like Big Vik – will be one of the first names off if we get what we need from the first part of this game. Martinelli hasn’t started for a few and I also think his form of last week and his goals in both Champions League and Man City will see Arteta give him the shout. Eze started against Newcastle, he started against Port Vale, plus the re-introduction of Odegaard to the match day XI will, I think, see him given the nod first and regardless of the score I wonder if the ‘job share’ I mentioned is also to manage Odegaard’s load by giving him circa 60 minutes and then letting Eze loose for the final third of the game.
We have to control this match. I think we will and I think Olympiacos will see this as a ‘bite yer hand off for a draw’ type of game. So I am expecting a bit of a low block. But the good thing about these Champions League teams is that they’re used to playing attacking football and winning their domestic games. That means that whilst they’re all good teams and professional sides, they aren’t a Sean Dyche-style Everton low block. They don’t do it every week. So my hope is that we can assert our dominance, exploit the spaces (where they exist) and hopefully pick up a solid victory from tonight.
That would put us in a good position if we do and it would also mean that a win against Atletico in a couple of weeks time – where we have some revenge we really ought to be extracting on them for the latter Wenger years – would have us in a commanding position to qualify in record time.
Got to do the business tonight first though.
Back tomorrow with some match review thoughts.
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