Having successfully navigated and thoroughly enjoyed Hate Watch Saturday, I am now fully focused on match day Sunday and I gotta tell ya, the nerves are proper kicking in already.

Last season, every time Liverpool slipped up, we weren’t able to capitalise. I remember seeing that Liverpool had slipped up in match week 16 and drawn to Fulham at home last season. But we then played out a drab 0-0 at home to Everton, which felt like it happened on a number of occasions. Conversely, they were just always there and doing their business when we slipped up, so from a pretty early stage it felt like the league was going to get away from us. Today, up against a very good Palace side who are going to cause us problems, we need to banish any demons of last season and do what we’ve done nearly all season – get the result we need.

This was also a fixture that, last season, we fell foul to the dreaded Draw-itis that plagued us throughout the season. Palace picked up a 2-2 and were pretty good that day; Eze scoring a particularly good volley from the edge of the box if I recall rightly.

But today we need to have the answers to what they will bring, which will be a system that has born them a lot of fruit and bookending their summer was a very impressive finish to the season with an FA Cup, as well as an unbeaten run at the beginning of the season that only ended a few short weeks ago. Palace come here probably quite bullish, despite no win in three and as I alluded to in yesterday’s blog, Glasner sounded like he’s fancying another scalp today so we need to be on it.

We also need to be able to nullify their threat, which comes from a back three set up, wing backs that like to maraud down the flanks and get low and impressive balls in to an in-form Mateta who has five goals already this season. I think given how we afford Calafiori the licence to get forward and in doing so we vacate that left back spot when we are pressing forward, we are going to need to have an answer to the big switch diagonals into that space, because Palace will absolutely us that. A quick look at a few metrics tells you that. If you look at how many times they progress the ball through carrying it, or passing it forward (FBREF counts a ‘progressive pass’ as one that is not in the defensive 40% of the pitch) progressively, Palace are second from bottom in carries and fourth from bottom in passes. This is not a Palace side that like to build up play. They get the ball and they move it quickly with their long balls and specifically, long diagonal balls. Palace don’t have a lot of passes though. They are second lowest for the number of passes they attempt in the whole league. This isn’t a team that wants the ball all the time; they want to go front to back in as fewer touches as possible and that says to me that I think they’ll want to spring traps and break on us. And they’re good at winning tackles and doing that – the best in the league in fact. In that back three of Richards, Lacroix and Guehi, they have a strong defensive unit.

So I don’t think this is going to be a game in which Palace press us super high – they currently sit 14th in the league for the dominant stat on pressing which is PPDA – so I think they are going to want to frustrate us, then spring rapid traps with the likes of Sarr, Mateta and Pino, who have all been in good form.

The onus for us, will be on whoever replaces Big Gabi today, because all the noises are that he isn’t fit and with that in mind Arteta has some options. He can go with Mosquera, who has impressed in these early stages of the season, then shift William Saliba to left centre-half. Or he can play Calafiori in there and play MLS as the left back. A third option is Hincapie and I think had he played a bit more this season, that is what we would go with. It doesn’t send the best message to the Ecuadorian that he’s the left centre-half understudy if he isn’t the first name called upon when Big Gabi is out, but the problem is, we’ve only seen him on for a few dead minutes at the end of the Bilbao game. Other than that he just hasn’t been used so I don’t think that’s what we’ll see today. I suspect it will be a Mosquera/Saliba partnership and given how good Mosquera has been, as well as the fact he’s played plenty of minutes already, I’d be ok with that.

So far all I’ve done is talk about Palace’s threats, but what about our options? Well, from what I’m hinting at above, clearly Palace are going to give us the ball and try to rope-a-dope us, but perhaps when they are transitioning on us, we can counter-transition back, so if there are any fast breaks and we see it, I’d like to see us get the ball to the space vacated by their wing backs. That, for me, means that Martinelli and Saka have to receive it in space and it means the likes of the defenders, as well as Zubimendi, need to be going direct to them quicker. That’s what I want to see. Of course we have to try to do the business when they are sat in their compact shape and defending as a five, but I want us to react quickly when they spread their players out across the pitch.

Perhaps it’s also a game for a scrappy goal, if we have the ball and it’s congested in the Palace box? With that in mind I am hoping that Big Vik can get another one in off his arse if needed. He just needs to occupy the space. He’s unlikely to get the chance to run in behind too much today, so it’ll be another one in which he has to battle and if he gets an inch in the box – something Palace rarely succumb to given the stats – he has to take it.

And we have to take whatever is given to us. It won’t be easy, there will be nervy moments, but if you want to win this league, you have to win games like today. I suspect City will get a result against Villa away, which means if we lose today they will go top. So we have to react. Catch you tomorrow for a debrief