With City inevitably picking up their three points against Leeds at home yesterday, Arsenal are reminded just how slender these advantages can be with what lies ahead of us today: An in-form Chelsea team with an opportunity to throw their hats into the ring as title contenders by beating us on their own patch.

So far this season, after it became clear that Liverpool were in freefall after their initial flurry of wins, all the talk has been about us. About our squad depth. About our approach. About how the title is almost ‘done’. But as Arsenal fans, I don’t think any of us have talked up, or entertained, such hyperbole. City are just four points off us and as we hit the congested December fixture period, these swings can quickly change. City are feeling themselves, Chelsea are feeling themselves, so we need to make sure we keep up the same ‘fogging estandards’ that we’ve done so far this season that has led us to this six point gap we currently have. Because as Liverpool and their fans can attest to, it can all very easily be eroded, so games like today matter.

And they matter on a number of levels. There’s the most obvious level of taking three points off a rival on their own patch. That brings the gap between us and City back up to seven points, plus it makes it nine clear of Chelsea and would be ten clear of Sunderland in fourth. But then there’s the impact it does on our players. The belief that will ooze from this Arsenal team if they complete a hat trick of wins on what has been defined as another huge milestone in our season. We’ve beaten the Scum in the NLD, we’ve scratched an itch in Bayern that has existed for well over a decade (although that still need to probably be done over two legs in a knockout competition I reckon), so a win today will send the belief and momentum of these players into the stratosphere. Then, think about the impact it has on opposition fans and the media, because if we somehow manage to bag all three points today then it will feel like we are a runaway freight train. We saw it last season with Liverpool. We’ve seen it before with City. We know what it would feel like and we know that other fans will feel a little forlorn about catching The Arsenal.

So the prize and the stakes are obvious, but how will Arteta line up today, against a Maresca Chelsea side?

Well, the data and the eye test tells me that Chelsea are a side who have a few different faces to them depending on the opponent, because they’ve dominated Liverpool, but been sucker-punched by Sunderland. The city firmly mid table for their home form with the 13th best home record having suffered two defeats to Brighton and Sunderland, as well as wins against Wolves, Fulham and the aforementioned Liverpool game. I watched that Liverpool game and the Scousers were not great at all, but they still created a few chances, which belies the numbers because Chelsea’s xG allowed at home is the third best in the league aside from City and us. But their xG at home is sixth; so they appear to be tightening up at the back based on those initial metrics. In six games they’ve scored nine at home and conceded six; it appears that teams are taking the chances when presented.

Their ‘keeper is often seen as a weak link and I remember that Sanchez sending off at Old Trafford early in the season, but he’s steadied his form out a bit of late I think I read, which means we need to be able to test him and hopefully do so with balls in behind their back line. It’s a young back line too, so if I’m in Arteta’s shoes I’m going to try to get the ball in behind that Chelsea defence. They will not sit in a low block I don’t think, so transitional counters and winning those one-v-one moments might make the difference. For example Cucurella will be more than happy to have some support one-v-one against Saka and seeing him doubled up on. I do think that Saka having a good game might be important for us today. We saw it was the Eze show last weekend, but Saka stepping up and delivering in a big game like this feels like it’s the kind of thing we need to happen to win a game like today.

I think Arteta might mix it up on the left today. I think Leo’s form has been crazy-good, in a sense you’d be mad to drop him, but I just have this feeling that because of his knock, he’s going to give the nod to Madueke or Martinelli. Both have a case to start: Martinelli has a good record of goals against Chelsea with a couple to his name including the equaliser last season in the 1-1 draw. But Madueke will fancy his chances as the pantomime villain of the piece returning to Old Trafford today, so I wouldn’t put it past Arteta to throw him in. He scored against Bayern, he’ll be buzzing after that, so now he could ride that adrenaline and good form into this game and if he’s the sort of guy who feeds off reactions like he’s gonna get from the crowd today, then we could get a very good performance from him if he starts. It feels like one of those games that Madueke will either have an absolute worldie of a performance, or it’ll be like he’s never been on the pitch. The question is whether Arteta fancies it to be the latter or the former.

The only other real questions will be over whether it’s Hincapie or Mosquera, or whether Odegaard comes in to start, which I think is probably unlikely. He got on to the pitch for nine minutes against Bayern and if he’d have played 30 or 40 minutes then I’d be minded to say he probably would start as he’s Arteta’s guy, but I think we go with the same team from last weekend, with perhaps a question over left wing being the main thing needed to be answered.

And Arsenal need to answer the away day at Chelsea question today. Can they overcome an in-form team to lay down another marker in a statement win?

Let’s hope so.

Back tomorrow for a debrief.