For the last few matches I’ve read a few blogs, listened to a few podcasts and spoken to a few mates, talking about how the performances haven’t quite matched the goal threat we have produced. I’m sure you’ve been exposed to the whole “Arsenal have one goal from 9 xG” narrative as much as I have. So that game last night felt like it was one in which two forces were coming together to clash:

  • The Great Arsenal underperforming data machine
  • The Great Aston Villa overperforming data engine

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, Villa have been a weird team from a data point of view, kind of defying the statistical models. Given they’d just gone through an 11-game winning streak, they rocked up at The Emirates in very good form and perhaps an expectation from their fans that they could very well cause an upset on our turf.

I felt it too, to be fair, because Villa had picked up a draw last season, and the season before that, they’d done us with a smash-and-grab, scoring two late goals. This could very well derail our season and I was very apprehensive ahead of it.

To add to that, the fact that the news emerged a few hours before kick-off that Rice wouldn’t be fit to play in this game, compounded the nerves. Arsenal would need to do this without our most in-form player of the season. But there was some positives that could be taken, with Big Gabi restored to the line-up, as well as Jurrien Timber and given that Hincapie was now getting into the team more regularly and had acquitted himself very well at both centre-half and left back this season, this was a back line that should be able to sure up any potential issues that Villa might pose.

But the absence of Rice was certainly felt in that first half and Villa caused us some challenges in midfield with one particularly impressive Tielemans ball through the middle of our team that Rogers nearly got the run on through on goal. Thankfully the back line spared our blushes, because in that first half Villa had the more presentable chances and, sadly, once again those half-decent chances fell to Big Viktor Gyokeres who didn’t take them. I’m not here to bag on him though; perhaps he could have done better with one of his headers, but he isn’t know as a striker who has a great scoring record with his head, so unlike the early chance against Brighton, I think those were a little tougher. But he’s still not getting into those positions and that continues to be a concern.

So was the gamesmanship from Villa players who, I thought, were playing from time and slowing the game down from the early parts of this game. I don’t blame them; they were content to frustrate a home team and crowd and given our record on our own patch, if they could slow everything down by taking time on the ball, going down a lot, then they’re entitled to do so. And let’s not forget that a fair bit has been made of Unai’s tactical subs in the second half and they certainly looked more impressive in the second half against Chelsea, so they obviously thought they had a blueprint they could adopt.

So Arsenal would have to change something in that second half and boy, did they, because we were out of the traps quickly and were ahead within three minutes of the restart. I’d read a Villa blog in the run-up to this game in which the author talked about how Martinez has some fantastic games, but he does get a little too preoccupied with opposition players and that sometimes causes him trouble. That happened against Chelsea and it happened last night too. His complaints about Big Gabi having fouled him were half-hearted at best and although it was hardly vintage stuff from the Brazilian, his mere presence unsettles all defenders and goalkeepers and he showed it last night. If you ask me, he’s the best central defender in the world not just because of his threat in the attacking box, but his presence at the heart of our defence too. You could tell the relief from the crowd when he came on as a sub against Brighton and today he showed his value at the attacking end too.

One goal hasn’t felt enough for Arsenal for a while now though, so the most important thing those Arsenal players needed to do was to get themselves a second and when you do that within a few minutes of the first, there’s always a big sense of relief and belief that this could go on to be a great game. What I liked about this goal was that it had everything the first half did not. I mentioned the Tielemans pass in the first half that split our midfield – well, this was an example of what happens if you press higher and win the ball back higher up the pitch to stop that kind of pass and move being made. Odegaard won the ball high – something that we know we are good at – his pass to Zubi was inch-perfect, the Spaniard’s flick over Martinez was done as if he was our centre-forward, it was 2-0 to The Arsenal and suddenly it felt like there could be more for us here. Villa, who had been getting away with it from a stats perspective for a few games now (if you listen to the data nerds), looked like the regression to the norm was upon us.

We were all over them from the beginning of the second half, but unlike in recent weeks, it was time to offer a beat-down to a team, and although we had to wait until the 69th minute for Leo to bag another goal and really seal this match up, we still created a ton of chances and I thought we were 100% value for that third goal. I have to confess I thought it would be ruled out for offside, but the good thing about offside is that it’s a little less subjective than things like a foul or a handball call, so once the technology had been checked and the goal was given, the relief could really set in.

And that relief just turned to joy with the goal from Gabby Jesus, who you could see was over the moon with his slot home to turn this in to a proper statement win. And it really was. The Watkins goal took a bit of the gloss off, but Arsenal played an in-form team (albeit missing a couple of key players) and took them apart. The narrative of recent weeks have been that Arsenal are wobbling, but this didn’t feel like it. This felt like an adrenaline shot for a team that is ready to go to the next level.

There’s no time to rest though. Bournemouth away was a place that we suffered last season, and so Arteta and his charges will be well-aware of the threat they pose, having lost last season. More on that in the coming days as we prep for that game on Saturday. For now, happy New Year’s Eve, with me off for a Cotswolds walk ahead of a boozy afternoon and evening.

Catch you tomorrow – hangover permitting.