I feel like the countdown to this huge Bournemouth game on Saturday lunchtime is well and truly on now. I remember talking about this one ahead of Southampton and Sporting Lisbon during the international break pod I did with Amanda a couple of weeks back. It’s been looming over me ever since the last league game, the dramatic, late, 2-0 win over Everton on 14th March. By the time kick-off comes, we will have been just under a month, a full 28 days, since we played in the Premier League. Given the tension we have all felt in the Premier League, it almost feels like it has been a bit of an oasis of calm. I know we’ve lost a cup final and been dumped out of the FA Cup, but even that disappointment doesn’t really compare to the frustration I felt after the Wolves draw, the United defeat, or the Forest draw.

The Premier League games just hit differently.

That’s why the nerves are already starting to ramp up.

Bournemouth is a good side. They are a well-coached side. On Saturday, they will be a well-rested side, too, and in the time since they last played on 20th March at home to Man United, we’ve played:

  • Three Champions League games
  • One League Cup final
  • One FA Cup quarter-final

There are a lot more minutes in those Arsenal players’ legs than there are in those of the Bournemouth players.

They have a pretty strong and relatively injury-free injury squad to call from, too. We’ll hear more from Iraola tomorrow, but by my count, they might only be missing Justin Kluivert, Julio Soler, and perhaps Tyler Adams. They also have the benefit of UAE-favouring Michael Oliver and Darren England. Honestly, I don’t understand why at this stage in the season, they don’t just stick him in random mid-table games, because any contentious decision against us this weekend is just going to have more people questioning the man’s integrity. For what it’s worth, I don’t think he is corrupt, but I do think he has an unconscious bias against Arsenal in certain games. Namely, those against Man City, and if he’s the ref next weekend, I’ll probably be blowing my lid more than this weekend. He’s refereed us twice this season; one was the 0-0 draw in which he and his VAR officials decided that Olana’s blatant handball wasn’t a handball (which I put on VAR more than Oliver), as well as the 4-1 home win against the Scum. So this season has not been as bad as we might have worried. Indeed, Bournemouth fans feel the same about him, but their story is similar. I haven’t watched the games in question, but they have a 2-0 win away at Wolves, a 0-0 at home to Chelsea, and a 2-2 away at Leeds.

I got this sense from them whilst having a look at one of their fan forums – Up The Cherries – and they’re feeling like this, be more history repeating itself as the draw specialists. They have 15 in the League so far, which is almost half of their games, and the only club that comes close to that are Sunderland and Brighton, on 10 draws this season. Those 15 draws have stopped a promising start to the season from being a run like Forest had last season to try to get Champions League football, and I seem to recall Bournemouth being up in the top spots after eight games. Their current position of 13th isn’t where they’d want to be, but the very nature of this league this season means that it’s congested enough that a few wins could put them in contention for European spots. With the coefficient confirmed after our win on Tuesday, I think it means if you’re down in eighth, you could make it. If Chelsea or City win the FA Cup, I think it confirms a Europa League spot in the Premier League. Bournemouth are currently just four points off that position (currently occupied by Everton), so for sure they have something to play for this weekend.

Their fans are naturally feeling that we will be nervous, and there is an opportunity to smell blood. I can understand that; last season they picked up wins both home and away, whilst in the game at the beginning of January they went ahead through a Gabriel mistake really early, before going ahead to cruise 3-1, before Kroupi pulled out a wonder strike to make the game a little nervous at the end. In those last three games, there is enough there to make Bournemouth fans feel optimistic, because before then, we had a fabulous record against them – winning each of the previous five games, and winning eight of the previous nine going back to 2018. But Iraola has changed their fortunes somewhat, with two wins and three defeats since he joined. So we need to be ready for a really tough game.

From a statistical point of view, Bournemouth are a side who score goals and concede goals with a fairly even level of regularity – I guess, hence the draws they pick up! They are the sixth-highest goal scorers in the league, whilst also conceding the fifth-highest number of goals. They take a lot of shots (and get plenty on target), they create high levels of xG (again, sixth in the league), and they try to get in as many crosses as possible. They press the ball high; they’re only behind Brighton, City and Everton in the league, just ahead of us, and their attacks are direct – they have had more direct attacks than any other team in the league this season so far (just behind us).

So we’re starting to have the data give us a bit of intel about what we might come up against on Saturday:

  • Higher press
  • Plenty of shots
  • Go direct, but try to get wide to get crosses in

If they play like they have done all season, they will create chances, but they will also give us space too. That rings true if you think about the game at their ground, when they managed to unsettle us on two occasions. I’ve had a look back on the stats from that day and Bournemouth had 15 shot attempts, with three on target, whilst we had 12 and five on target. They played a 4-2-3-1 and at least two players from that day won’t be playing – Semenyo and Kluivert. They’ve replaced Semenyo with the Brazilian Rayan, who is quick, likes to beat a man and in a game that might end up being end-to-end, he could be one that we need Calafiori to be concerned with.

I’ll do a little more on Bournemouth tomorrow, as we await team news, but for today I will leave you with this thought: I think we might get a good game on Saturday. It might be terrifying, but I don’t think we’re getting Low Block FC rocking up at The Emirates.