I’ve sort of talked about it, we’ve all been thinking about it, and this game has been living ‘rent-free’ in my head for some time now. Certainly, since last weekend. But now, we have to really focus on it. So I suppose I have to start properly talking about it.

Today the managers will give their press conferences. A week ago, Arteta tried the rousing speech to get the home fans to bring the noise. In midweek, he talked about ‘fire’. I have a feeling today he will lean in to the ‘enjoy the ride’ narrative. He can’t get the home fans on side as this is obviously an away one, so it has to be a message to his players via a public medium, so I think that message is going to be “look at what you have achieved so far, embrace the challenge, show everyone what you are capable of”.

And let’s be honest, everyone is basically calling this a City win. I don’t blame them. They have the momentum. They have the recent results. They have the home advantage. They have the attacking talent. Conversely, our form has been poor, our performances have been patchy, and we are away from home. I had a look at what the pundits are saying, and it is no surprise that they are all basically backing City to win this. Chris Sutton says 1-0 City on BBC Sport, Merse goes for a 1-0 City, Shearer says a City win, Paul Scholes (unsurprisingly) thinks City will win ‘easily’, DAZN have said 3-1 to City Sports Mole goes for a 41% chance City do it, 34% chance we do it, 24% chance it is a draw. The only person who seems to think we could get something is Gary Neville and Lewis Jones on Sky Sports, who say they are thinking it’ll be a 1-1 draw.

That would be a dream scenario, let’s be honest, because the way I feel right now, even I’m struggling to make a case for us getting a point, let alone a win. We’ve scored three goals in our last five football matches for crying out loud.

I think we’re all just praying that some sort of good news on returning players is found out. I say “found out” rather than announced, because we all know Arteta will give us nothing, so we’ll be reliant on HandOfArsenal dropping some kind of news that certain players are back in training and have made the match-day squad for the weekend. Otherwise, we’re looking at probably Ben White against Doku and, like the cup final, that worries me.

What I am trying to find solace in is some of those interviews of the players, like Decaln Rice, who has said he and his teammates are ready for the ‘ultimate test‘ this weekend. I have no doubt he is. That man has prove time-and-time again that he is made for this type of match-up. But unfortunately, this season, our attackers have proved they are not. Just look at this goal return from the forwards on this chart:

  • Bukayo Saka = 6 (26 Premier League appearances)
  • Trossard = 5 (27 Premier League appearances)
  • Madueke = 2 (21 Premier League appearances)
  • Gabriel Jesus = 2 (12 Premier League appearances)
  • Gabriel Martinelli = 1 (26 Premier League appearances)

Saka gets a bit of a pass because he’s been injured, but that’s pretty crappy across the whole team, it has to be said. I really want to dig in on Martinelli for that, but looking at his time on the pitch, he’s basically been a sub for most of the season. He’s played 900 minutes in total in the Premier League, coming on as a sub in 16 of those 26 appearances. But when you think about what he gave us away at Southampton and at home to Bournemouth, you can see why. It’s just not good enough at this stage of the season.

And it’s these stats that are the reason I am so worried about the weekend. These games always feel like a ‘first goal wins’ and when your attackers aren’t delivering the goals, it already feels like you are playing with one hand tied behind your back. I’m probably going to talk more about that over the weekend, I think, because it does feel like the first goal wins it and, annoyingly, more often than not it is City. I also feel like they seem to get that first goal really early, too. In the game in September, we started better, looked better, but Haaland scored within 10 minutes, and we were left chasing the game the whole afternoon. We did score very early in the 5-1 last season, with Odegaard bagging in two minutes, but in the 2-2 draw in September last year, it was Haaland again in nine minutes that put us on the back foot. When you look at games at the Etihad, other than the 2-2 just mentioned and the 0-0 from the season before, the wins City have had have had first goals scored:

  • 2022/23 = 7 minutes – De Bruyne
  • 2021/22 = 7 minutes – Gundogan
  • 2020/21 = 23 minutes – Sterling
  • 2019/20 = 45 minutes – Sterling
  • 2018/19 = 1 minute – Aguero

That’s an appalling record in terms of early goal concession, pointing to a historic issue with keeping the temperature of a game down. And, once again, we’re going into this one in which those normally quiet City fans will be in full voice. You look at those numbers, and it doesn’t exactly feel like history won’t be repeating itself, eh?

If I’m going to try to find some positivity today, it is that if we score at their ground first (it hasn’t happened since 2015, guys and gals) then perhaps it opens the game up, or alternatively if we keep them out in the first half they might start to commit more bodies forward and leave even more space in behind, then maybe we can get something. But as of right now, looking ahead to this one, without any idea of player availability, I’m just not sure.

I’m really sorry, guys, I feel like I’ve been a proper neg this week, which doesn’t exactly make for fun reading. But let me assure you, I love this club as much as you, I want only the best for them, and I will spend the entire game in a praying position on Sunday. I am hoping for the football gods to smile down on us, but I’m a bit like Paul Ashworth in Fever Pitch; I tend to look at the glass half empty when it comes to The Arsenal, because I feel like any time I get a little too positive, something rocks me. The last time was when Villa defeat when we were on that amazing run in 2024.

Anyway, I’ll leave it there for today, then be back tomorrow when we can have a look at what the managers said. See you then.