There are just three match days I absolutely hate. Today is one of them. The other two are:

  1. The NLD away – just hate the stakes, even when they are shit and we’ve beaten them on their own ground for the last couple of seasons
  2. The Emptihad – because, like Anfield, we just never win there, and it’s annoying

I guess the upside is that City losing yesterday means that whatever today’s result, we won’t really have lost any ground this weekend. City’s defeat means we are level on points with them, and Brighton’s beating of them – led by one manager fast becoming unbearable and certainly hypocritical after last weekend’s moan about Liverpool not coming to play – was good, but doesn’t put them above us in the league. Liverpool can cut the gap with us to three points with a win, but again, we’d still have three points on them. So as we rapidly approach the quarter-season mark, we’re in good shape.

Except we know that from an attacking point of view, maybe not so much, and today is a day to try to prove that we don’t have too much to worry about. Both Kay and Viktor were poor against Fleetwood, Kai’s form in general hasn’t been great, and Gyokeres’ technical deficiencies are there for everyone to see. So we’ve leaned on other players to fill the goalscoring void, and today might well be the same. I’d even go as far as to say it will have to be the same, because I can’t see either of our attackers getting tons of chances and making their mark against a Liverpool defence that has only conceded eight goals this season. Only us and Brighton are better than that.

I also think that Iraola is going to try to match Slot’s blueprint from last season at Anfield against us; i.e., let’s have a game in which two teams that respect each other cancel each other out. This game feels like it’s probably being won by just the odd goal.

You watch this be a 5-4 stormer now.

Liverpool have the weapons for that. Isak always scores against us, he always causes us problems, and he’ll be flanked by in-form Gakpo and new boy Barcola. That’s quite an expensively assembled front line, up against our robust and experienced back line. And you feel as though the tale of this match later is going to be written based on which of those two units bests the other one. Do we remain resolute, watertight and lock Liverpool down? Or do they breach us and go on to collect what they usually do at Anfield against The Arsenal – at least a point, often three?

I wouldn’t put money on us being able to keep Liverpool at bay, although I was listening to the Arsenal Vision podcast yesterday whilst on my way to do the shopping, and Elliott was talking about how he’s been watching their games, and they haven’t been that amazing going forward. He said he’d watched the last four in all competitions and he wasn’t that impressed. I’ll have to defer to somebody that has watched more Liverpool than I have, but I thought they did a good job of getting ahead against Brighton, then just controlling the game. That’s a blueprint I suspect Iraola would love to replicate today. It’s something that we’ve seen from a lot of managers over the years; go hard and fast and high tempo, get an early goal, then control the match and force Arsenal to come out. That’s what we don’t want. We don’t have an amazing record of going on to win games when we are behind. It’s just not us. We prefer to get ahead, then squeeze the opponent. An early Liverpool goal would possibly be curtains for us, because we’d have to come out, and they’d be primed to hit us in a transitional game.

It is interesting, though, because despite the fact they have what looks like a very potent attacking side, Liverpool have only scored 11 goals this season. We have two more. So whilst pundits might try to big this up as an ‘attack versus defence’ game, the numbers don’t really suggest that.

I’m not stupid enough to think that they won’t get a lot of chances today, though. So we’ll need to make sure we win that midfield battle and control the centre of the park, because if we remain strong at the back when they have the ball, if we control the midfield, we might be able to avoid Liverpool’s pace on the counter. In terms of what team I would therefore put out, I am thinking this one might be the best:

Raya

Timber – Konsa – Gabriel – Calafiori

MLS

Odegaard – Rice

Madueke – Havertz – Eze

Calafiori and Eze still need to work on their connections, and I also think we need to see that from Havertz and Eze too, but I’ve gone with Myles because of his ball-carrying ability. I just think that in the middle of the park, if this game is to be a cagey and tightly contested one with pressing, Myles is the kind of press-resistant player that can wriggle out of tight spaces and help us to get Liverpool out of shape and on the back foot. On the attack, I don’t think you want to chuck Tzolis straight back in, but having him as a sub option would be good, and it’s an opportunity for Eze to build a little more momentum with a good performance. With the Greek now back and training, Eze needs a good performance today to keep him on the pitch ahead of Tzolis, so I hope we get the good version of Eze that shows up in big games. The other decision which will cause an eyebrow or two from one or two of you lovely readers, is the inclusion of Havertz over Big Vik. I know Havertz sucked at Fleetwood, but in these types of games, he offers more, and I worry that Gyokeres on the pitch against Van Dijk and Jacquet just seems him isolated, lost in the game, unfindable and therefore rendered rather redundant. Havertz may have forgotten where the goal is, but he will be more of an option on the ball than the Swede.

And we need every player to deliver today. This ground is a curse for us, has been for more of my lifetime, so I’m not especially confident. But if we have every man showing up, giving us a minimum of seven or eight out of ten, I think we win this game.

Back tomorrow for a debrief/post-mortem. See you then.