Happy Friday folks – how we all doing? Feeling pretty chipper after two wins this last week? Ready for a hopeful third tomorrow? I am. Not least because of what’s happened in the last two season’s against our opponent this weekend.

It’s been a feeling of Deja Vu in the last two season’s against West Ham. Two season’s ago they came to our place over he Christmas 2023 and scored two goals from three shots on target with some uncharacteristically poor defending from our lads for the first, followed by a one-nil defeat last season after they’d had two shots on target. Over that period we have had 50 attempts at their goal (30 in 2023 and 20 earlier on this season) and have yet to score. It’s a bizarre quirk but as we prepare to face another New Manager Bounce team given Potter’s sacking and Nuno’s arrival, I’m already preparing myself for another low block game and so the idea that West Ham could make it three-in-a-row by scoring with basically their only chances, isn’t outside of the realms of possibility.

I don’t know whether it’s a good or a bad thing that Potter has gone. On the one hand, they were a shambles and both Chelsea and The Scum basically had walks in the Stratford park against the, but on the other hand they’ve got a guy who loves a low-possession, low block, defensively solid set up that is designed to frustrate and hit on the transition. That’s essentially been the game plan for the last two season’s against us so they already have the blueprint, they have the manager, they now just need the skanky execution to do it.

As usual ahead of the press conferences today, I decided to have a look at what the West Ham fans themselves are thinking, given they’ve won at ours for the last two seasons. Firstly, I started with my brother, as he’s a Hammer much like half my family on my Dad’s side. His response via WhatsApp was that he just wanted the scoreline to be respectable, because he doesn’t give West Ham a chance, but I ain’t falling for that one I can tell ya. I reminded him of the last two games at the Emirates between these two teams – it didn’t move him to change his mind.

West Ham fans do seem to have a weird and irrational hatred of Arteta. I’m not really sure why, because he’s never said or did anything to cheese them off I don’t think, but that’s just generally the way of football when manager’s are in a job long enough I think. Arteta has done six year’s in charge at The Arsenal and when any manager sticks around that long, there’s enough time that elapses that has any football fan of other teams basically hating them. Happened with Klopp, it will happen to Slot if he sticks around long enough, so I should expect nothing less.

What I didn’t expect is the optimism from West Ham fans. I’m reading through one forum thread at the moment and I’m 20 messages in and I see my first result that see’s us pick up any points (1-1- draw with the person saying they despise us as much as Spurs these days – which is quite some statement given how much I know they hate the Scum). There are a few in there that are predicting like my brother has yesterday, but they seem to have a bit of optimism for a smash and grab and I can see why: They have a ‘smash and grab’ manager set up for it. So Arsenal need to be ready and Arsenal need to not do anything silly defensively like we have for the last two season’s.

So that’s what their fans are saying, but what about the pundits? Well, Sports Mole has us as a 2-0 victor, saying that if we create the same volume of chances as we did against Olympiacos, we’ll surely tuck one away. You’d expect us to get plenty of chances for sure I suspect. Over at Opta, they’re saying it’s a 76.6% probability that we win and I am hopeful that given those probabilities were probably the same for the last two season’s, lightning can’t strike thrice – can it? I mean, just think about that. The analysis and supercomuter is saying that if this match is played 100 times, we win in basically 77 of them. Yet for two season’s in a row it’s gone against the probabilities. Yes, I know football is played on the pitch and not in the algorithm, but still – are we really going to see West Ham score their fourth goal in three season’s against us with their sixth shot on target? That would feel like we’re being shafted by the footballing gods. We need to do the business, we need to show up and be the best versions of ourselves, we need to finish our chances (and I’ve just re-watched some of the chances from the last two season’s – bloody hell), but I want to see Arteta sending them out tomorrow sniffing revenge.

Over at BBC Sport (did some words for them yesterday after the Olympiacos win if you’re interested – here) Chris Sutton has said we’ll canter to a 3-0 win, although Merse thinks it’ll be a tighter 1-0. I don’t like the sound of that and whilst defensively we have a fantastic outfit (usually), you can’t help but think that a 1-0 goal margin leaves us dangerously close to a later skanky equaliser if we are are the ones that are ahead.

We’ll know more about where Arteta’s head is at over the next 12 hours or so as he does his press conference, as well as how Nuno will set up when he does his, so I’ll leave it there for now and be back tomorrow with a bit more of a ‘how am I feeling?’ match preview. Catch you then.