It’s Friday, which means press conference day, as Mikel Arteta faces the media ahead of a really tough game against Everton. We’ll have a little look at what he said, as well as Moyes, in tomorrow’s blog. Today, I think I’ll take a look at where Everton are at.

Well, from a form perspective, they’re in pretty good nick. A win at home against Burnley the week before last was preceded by a win away at Newcastle, although they did lose at home to United before that, as well as Bournemouth at home with a man sent off. The form table tells us that they are seventh in terms of their last four games, ninth in their last six games, and then sixth in their last eight games. So it’s a bit of mixed form for a Toffees side who currently sit eighth in the table and have really stabilised themselves under David Moyes. West Ham fans wouldn’t like to admit it, but I bet they’d give their right arm to go back in time and have the Scot stay on as manager a little longer than he did after helping them lift the Europa Conference League a few years back.

I watched their game against Newcastle, and although Newcastle were poor, it gave a clear indication of what we’re going to see from Everton tomorrow. This will be low block, deep defence, transitional counter-attacking attempts. Or at least holding us for a shutout. They may have changed the manager from when they last came to the Emirates last season, but the aim remains the same: Low block the shizzle out of this one. That’s what they did against Newcastle, that’s what they did against us with Dyche, that’s what they’ll do once again – and the numbers feel like the support this:

  • Fifth lowest xG in the whole league – they don’t create a lot of good chances
  • Ninth highest xG against – they’re a solid mid-table team when it comes to conceding high-quality chances
  • Fifth lowest average possession in the league – they don’t want the ball, they don’t keep the ball
  • Fifth lowest ‘dangerous possession lost’ in the league (we are the lowest) – they don’t tend to make too many mistakes in their defensive positions.

I get these stats from MARKSTATS, by the way, which helps me to get an understanding of what we’re up against. But by all accounts, it feels like a defensively disciplined side who will sit in their shape and ask the likes of Gueye and Garner to tuck in and protect the defence, whilst McNeill and Ndiaye will be their counter-attacking wingers who will look to set the big man Beto in. They’ll look for set pieces to unsettle us (they have the third most shots from set pieces in the whole Premier League – we are fourth), because despite me saying that they’ll look for Beto, they actually have the lowest number of fast breaks in the league. Going on this initial assessment of some top-line data, this already feels like it is going to be a very attritional game for The Arsenal. I’m sure Arteta is ready for that, but are the media, when they once again accuse us of being boring when the opposition side has sat in their own half for most of the game?

Their fans are understandably buoyant after back-to-back wins, with a quick check on one of their fan forums giving us things like:

The pressure on them could work in our favour and let’s be honest they haven’t looked great lately.
I’m hoping our confidence will beat their nerves

And

We got battered there last year but somehow managed to get a 0-0 draw. I would take that again

And

Beto passes a sublime, curled injury time winner to start the Annual arsenal campaign rot. Followed by 15min delay as VAR team take the unusual step of a passport check to confirm it’s actually Beto.

0-1.

Jack Grealish has caused us problems over the years, but he’s injured, which is a bonus. I do think Ndiaye is a decent player. I had him in my FPL team at the start of the season, and he racked up a fair few points for me with his penalty goals and set pieces. He’s one to keep an eye on, I think. I also find it ironic that their fans are talking about Arsenal scrums in the penalty box, after we saw the game against Man United be probably even worse between those two sides. I do wonder if we’re getting to a point in the season, however, where a referee will select a game to make an example of. This feels like the sort of game where that might happen, be it a penalty for either side. I hope I’m wrong.

The pundits are – as you’d expect – giving Arsenal the edge in this one. Merse has gone for a 2-1 in which we edge it, Lewis Jones says it’ll be a 2-0, citing Moyes’ away form in these big games as not being that great. Sutton also thinks it’ll be 2-0, saying that Everton will make it difficult, there might be a chance of fatigue, but our squad should see us through. Which I kind of get. What’s interesting is that a lot of these guys are also predicting City to drop points away to West Ham. I’m not sure I see that. I get it, they will be down after Real Madrid, and they’ve had to travel back from Spain on Wednesday, before coming down to the capital, with West Ham having their feet up, but I just don’t see City dropping points tomorrow – that’s why we have to take care of our business first. If we slip up with a defeat or a draw, it gives City a boost before they even kick off. If they know that they cannot do anything other than win tomorrow night, maybe it makes those muscles a little more tense and tight. That’s the opportunity we have, and that’s what Mikel Arteta must be instructing on his players.

I’ll leave it there for now. I’m back as usual tomorrow, and I’ll catch you all then when we all know what the team news is, and can start the guesswork on how Arteta will set the team up.