I haven’t slept well at all this week. Some of it, admittedly, is related to stuff happening at my work, but more of it is related to what happens this afternoon.

This could be the biggest game for Arsenal football club in over two decades.

In 2022/23, we had to go to the City and win. That was an Arsenal team that was a surprise challenger, who were up against a City team in their peak, that ended up winning a treble. Arsenal had lost William Saliba a few weeks earlier and had to go with Rob Holding at the back. It was always an outside bet.

Today, the situation is different. As usual, Arsenal have a load of injury questions to consider, but rather than “have to win”, this game still leaves things in the balance, regardless of the result.

But a result that sees Arsenal anything but it means that we are in the driving seat to win our first title in 22 years. Just typing that has me shaking with nerves this morning.

The problem we have is that rather than going into this game with swagger and confidence, we go into it having lost three of our last four games, with one of those being against 115 Charges FC at Wembley in a cup final. The momentum is with the financially doped football club, and Arsenal’s is patchy, to be generous.

My normal approach to talking about these matches pre-game is to do a bit of a data look at the situation, but that feels a little futile right now; we know that these games always throw up tactical nuances that change throughout the match. We know that Guardiola and Arteta are masters of tactical adaptability, so looking at the data for patterns of play, to my untrained eyes, feels a little spurious. So instead, today is more of a ‘feelings’ and ‘vibes’ blog, with some thoughts on which Arsenal players I want to see in the starting line-up today.

HandOfArsenal posted last night that Odegaard was with the travelling Arsenal squad, but a decision will be made tomorrow morning if he makes the match-day line-up. I doubt he will from the start, but if he can do 20-30 minutes, then that would be a huge welcome boost. He adds a layer of technical security on the ball, and with Saka already ruled out, it feels like every body we can get into that squad who can keep the ball and give us more security, is vital.

And with that in mind, if I’m picking a starting XI I am hoping will play today that has the right level of technical quality on and off the ball, here’s what I am going for:

Raya

Timber   –   Saliba   –   Gabriel   –   Calafiori

Zubimendi

Eze   –   Rice

Gabriel Jesus   –   Havertz   –   Trossard

Gabriel Jesus is the weirdest one out of that lot, but he is good on the ball, he has a massive incentive to up his game on a former home ground, he will chase, harry and defend as well as getting forward, plus he looked alright for his Sporting cameo in midweek. I think it is too much to ask Dowman to start. Madueke has been poor in his last couple of games, as has Martinelli, so throwing a little bit of a curveball could be something that surprises City. And if it doesn’t work, if he’s terrible, then you can decide to get Dowman, or Madueke, or even Martinelli, on the pitch at some stage.

If Odegaard is available, that’s where this is also interesting, because suddenly, for that second half, we have options. If we need to Hincapie can sure us up at the back, I doubt Timber (I’ve made a wild hoping gesture that he’s fit today) could do the full 90, so I’d have Mosquera ready, you have Odegaard in midfield, Martineli/Madueke/Dowman as your wide attacking options, plus, if you really need to go for it, you give Gyokeres 20 minutes and tell him to get into those box spaces and being ready. In theory, we could have a very strong bench.

But that’s not the problem today. The problem is Arsenal needing to stay mentally on it and up for it, because I don’t want to have to think about the fallout if we take a pasting today. And that could happen. We are TERRIBLE at that stadium:

  • No win in 11 years
  • Seven defeats in 10 games.
  • 25 goals conceded.
  • Eight goals scored.
  • Five goals conceded in five of those games in the first 25 minutes.

We just don’t have any kind of historical backing behind us in this fixture since the oil money came in. That 2-0 win, in which Cazorla starred, is the lone island of green amongst a sea of red, dating back to 2010, since City received their ill-got gains. If you go back to 2010 for the numbers, it reads two wins in 25 years, with nine defeats and four draws, and it is a rather depressing tale of an Arsenal side that has never really been able to consistently deliver blows against the best team of the last decade.

Which is why I’m not super confident about today. How can I be? I have hope. I am praying that Arsenal show up. But form, history, injuries and the situation dictate that today, unfortunately, I fear the worst. I am hoping to see something different, I really am, but there’s a reason most people are predicting a City win, and it’s not just because so much of the footballing world seems to have a vendetta against The Arsenal. It’s because City are good. Very good at attack. Cherki, Doku, Haaland, Semenyo, Savinho, Foden, Marmoush, and Rejinders – all have goals in them. And we’ve struggled for that of late. I hope that we have more space than usual and that some of our out-of-form attackers realise who they are, but I am worried about how this game might unfold, especially if they score their customary early goal against us.

We need every player, to a man, for Arsenal to be 100% on their game today. We simply cannot afford any lapses in concentration on passing or a lack of tracking runners. It will result in disaster if we have even two or three passengers today. That’s why I am hoping Arteta goes with the full complement of technically gifted footballers. We can’t be having any eight-touch Gyokeres games, or 10-touch hugging the touchline Martinelli games. Nope, we need guys stepping up, showing for the ball, finding space, delivering in the right moments.

I’m absolutely sh*tting myself today. So I’m going to fill my morning and right up until kick off with jobs and other things, in an attempt to take my mind off of what is unfolding later.

Amanda, James and I will hopefully be doing a post-match reaction to the result on the Same Old Arsenal pod after kick off, so join us there at some stage – we’re still working out exact times.