So it looks like Pantomime Villain FC finally came-a-cropper in a game last night, as PSG smashed them on their own patch 4-2. Lovely stuff. It’s a shame that Man City have a three-point banker with a home game to Ipswich at the weekend, because it would be nice to see how they respond to a defeat like that. Sadly, we probably won’t find out, as Ipswich will have their bellies tickled, and then we’ll have to respond with our own attempt at three points by playing a very tricky Nottingham Forest side on Sunday.

It’s funny because at times in the season like this, there’s still not tons of data to try to interpret how your opponent plays under a new manager, plus I haven’t watched a single minute (live – I’ve watched some incidents on replay) of their football this season. We know that Glasner is a good manager, that games against Palace were always tough and that he’s delivered Palace two trophies in two seasons, but can that form be translated to a strange club in Forest, with a mental owner who once held Morgan Gibbs-White hostage live on TV with a contract announcement video?

Their results paint an interesting mixed bag. Back-to-back defeats to kick off the season against Leeds in the league and then the League Cup, a perfectly respectable 2-2 draw away at Anfield, followed by a 0-0 in which they had what looks like a perfectly good goal against the Scum. They won 2-1 away at Villa, which is impressive, but then lost 1-0 at home to Coventry, before going ahead against Palace before ultimately losing 3-1. So it’s a very mixed bag start to the season for them, reflected by the fact they’re currently 15th in the table on five points.

I remember the game last season. Tough, difficult to break down, then reliant on the most blatant handball not given to us after Alaina flicked the ball with his hand. He even joked about it on social media afterwards. I don’t recall a PGMOL apology either, although that’s hardly surprising. But Forest have remained a really tough nut for us to crack since they returned to the Premier League, so I expect Sunday to be the same. In fact, if you look in all competitions under Arteta, our record away from home reads:

  • 0-0 in 2026/27
  • 0-0 in 2024/25
  • 2-1 win in 2023/24
  • 1-0 defeat in 2022/23
  • 1-0 defeat in 2021/22 (FA Cup)

That’s hardly sparkling, is it? And some of the performances have been pretty dire too. That 23/24 win was super scrappy, and we didn’t get our first goal until 65 minutes through a Gabriel Jesus goal, before Bukayo made it two.

So I think we should expect more of the same. Oliver Glasner prefers a 3-4-2-1, and it sounds like he plays a mid-block, which we’ve struggled with at times, as Aston Villa away showed this season. They’ll play with wing-backs who will look to exploit the spaces vacated as we press forward, and hit us with fast back-to-front transitions, relying on the likes of Munoz and Williams to venture forward and support Ndoye and Gibbs-White as the wide forwards. Liam Delap will do his usual kicking everyone.

Forest also have a pretty decent defensive record, given their position in the admittedly very early league table. They’ve only conceded eight goals so far, and when you look at all of the teams in the bottom half of the Premier League, that’s by far the best. You have to goal all the way up to Liverpool in ninth to see a team that has conceded less. But they’ve also only scored five, the same as Coventry, and hilariously, the Scum – who are bottom of the league for goals scored on three.

There are signs that they create chances though; they have the seventh-highest xG so far this season, they have created the third-highest number of shots, they’ve hit the post the joint-highest along with Man United, plus they’ve had the second-highest number of headed shots (and second in the league for successful crosses this season). So a picture is already starting to be painted of what we might see on Sunday:

  • Defensive solidity and compactness at times into a mid-block
  • Balls into the box (which is where you tend to get headed shots from)
  • Chances created, albeit not at the greatest conversion rate (go watch them score two goals from two chances now I’ve said that!)
  • A team that will play mostly without the ball (15th in total number of passes this season) and play forward every time they do.

Arteta will have this data, his Arsenal coaching staff and data analysts will have this data, so today and tomorrow needs to be spent formulating the plan to counter that threat, and maximise ours.

The next question will be who will play, which after the game against midweek is easier to pick in some positions than others. The Havertz/Gyokeres is easy, but others remain up in the air:

  • Bruno or Myles at the base of the midfield?
  • Eze or Madueke on the left?
  • Timber or White at right back?

Those are the questions Arteta will need to ponder and, depending on the fitness of Timber, for example, you’d wonder if he can start to look at the opponent and the best player who can slot in based on their weaknesses. If, for example, you think that Timber works better because his channel running is inside of Saka and in between Forest left centre-back and central-centre-back, then go for it. But if you want to create space by overlapping your right back, then you go for Ben White. It’s a question that I’m not sure what the right answer is to, but that’s why they don’t pay me the big bucks.

I do think the combative nature of Bruno should be considered, which would be harsh on Myles given how well he’s started this season, but we’ve got options and a big enough squad, as well as plenty of games, so I think he’ll be alright.

We still have another 24 hours before the managers deliver their team news, so there’ll be plenty to unpick there, but for now I’ll leave you be and be back tomorrow with a look at what their fans are thinking ahead of this one, as well as what the pundits are saying.

Laters.